Check Your Asset Allocation

By Steve Wolff

The markets have returned to volatility lately. Every time the market looks like it’s headed down, we see people on TV start predicting that this is the start of a down market.
So here is how we see things right now.

First, the stock market has not had a big correction for a long time, so we all know that at some point it will correct. There are a lot of global events going on that are causing angst in the markets. Russia and Ukraine is probably the greatest of these issues, but certainly not the only issue. Israel and Hamas, Isis, Iran, Italy sinking into a recession and more are all adding to investors’ fears.

On the other hand, earnings reports have been generally pretty good. On Monday morning, August 5th, Bob Pisani of CNBC reported that of the 76% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far for the quarter, on average, earnings are up by about 9.7% and revenues up about 5%. Those are actually fairly decent numbers.

The bears (those who believe the market is going to go down) believe the companies’ earnings are going to slow down. The bulls (those who believe the market is going to go up) say the companies’ earnings are strong, the interest rates are still low, so stocks are the place to be.

The bears say that rising interest rates will be a competitor to dividend paying stocks so stocks will get sold off. The bulls say that if interest rates go up, then bonds will go down in price, so you want to remain in stocks.

So the pessimists and the optimists are both trying to figure out where the market should be, hence the volatility. For the year, the stock market has been hovering around the flat line, with some months good and some months bad. So there has not been a real direction one way or the other.

We have heard several prognosticators say it looks like we are heading for a growth rate of about 3% to 4% in the U.S. for the year. If that growth rate is accurate, that is normally not the underpinning of a major bear market. But that does not mean there can’t be corrections along the way.

As we have said many times, no one knows with certainty where the market is going to go. We certainly don’t know if the bulls or the bears are going to be right in the short term. So we say that now is a good time to look at your portfolio, make sure you are in the proper asset allocation, and then be sure it is something that will not cause you to panic if the market goes down by 15 or 20% (which is a normal market correction). As most of our clients have heard us say, it is panicking out of the market at the bottom that causes the most damage to investors’ returns.

If you are not sure of where you are or just want to review your account, please call us. We are always here for you.

Proactive Wealth Process – Second Quarter 2014

This quarter we are focusing on behavioral investing. Each quarter as we focus on a different topic, we will provide you information and opportunities for further discussions.Please check out this ShaveMagazine.com article.

 

http://www.shavemagazine.com/finance/Overcoming-Behavioral-Investing

 

This article may be insightful and be very pertinent to you.

Let us know. Otherwise, please feel free to contact us at #760-692-5190 if you have any questions.

 

Best Regards,

Steve, Cliff, Catherine, Vincent, Brian, Joscelin, Kerry and Jodi

Real Estate or Stocks? WWM Financial Answers the Big Question on ESPN Radio

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WWM Financial featured on 1700am ESPN Radio

WWM Financial featured on 1700am ESPN Radio

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NLP and Investing – Save the Date: Thursday, June 12

Behavioral psychology has more to do with how a person fares in the stock market (and all other markets) than actually how well the investment itself does. Study after study confirms that investors, as a whole, do significantly worse than the investments.

Why?

Come find out the science behind why the general investing public makes the same mistakes over and over again, and find out how to create new pathways in the brain to overcome making those same very human mistakes.

We are proud to present Dr. David Weule, an expert at Neuro Linguistic Programming, who will delve into the scientific reasons for our self destructive behavior. The event will take place at 6:30 p.m. Thursday June 12th at Shadowridge Country Club in Vista. We will be serving fruit, cheese and wine in addition to desserts and coffee.

We think this is one of the most important events we have showcased up to now. It is part of our ongoing educational “Proactive Wealth Process” for our clients so they can become the best, and hopefully most educated investors they can be.

Please RSVP to Kerry Harmon at Kerry@wwmfinancial.com or call us at 760-692-5190.

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